Fundsters' 2022 bonus prospects are looking worse, after big gains in 2021 and 2020.

The folks at Johnson Associates predict, in their "Financial Services Compensation Second Quarter Trends and Year-End Projections" report, that bonuses at asset managers will fall 15 to 20 percent this year compared to 2021 on a headcount-adjusted basis (an increase from their 10 to 15 percent prediction from three months ago), falling more than five percent below 2018 levels. They point to AUM (thus revenue) drops thanks to market declines and outflows (especially among active equity funds).

The Johnson team still expects asset managers' base salaries to rise five percent this year. Yet that increase looks like it will be overwhelmed by the expected bonus drop and the cost-of-living hit from inflation (which Johnson puts at eight percent).

And the Johnson team also warns that they see asset managers' hiring decelerating in an effort to evaluate headcount and temper costs.

"'War for talent' slowing and headcount will decrease as firms scale back after increasing headcount in 20212 and into 2022," the Johnson team writes. 

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