It's still early in the game for the bull-market, according to Richard Bernstein
, chief executive of Richard Bernstein Advisors
He made this declaration to an audience of over 300 C-level executives in the mutual fund industry during a keynote presentation at the Tiburon CEO Summit hosted at the Ritz Carlton Battery Park in downtown Manhattan.
Bernstein, who also teaches at New York University
, reminded attendees are not "periods of wine and roses," but rather that of fear and greed.
The feel-good wines and roses period of any bull market, he said, are the 8th and 8th innings of a bull market. The first seven innings are characterized by fear and indecision.
"People are not very good at identifying bull markets," he said.
When should an investor start worrying for the bull market?
Bernstein gave the attendees three indicators.
1. The Fed tightens so much that the yield curve bursts and becomes inverted
2. Stocks are significantly over-valued
3. Investors are euphoric for a particular kind of asset
And when is it completely over for the bull market, when managers come out with high specialized equity portfolios overflowing with adjectives describing the fun.
That, he said, when you know the story is done.
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