Morningstar vice president for research John Rekenthaler
took a look at how winners of Morningstar's Fund Manager Awards have fared in
the 10 years following their victory. He shared his findings in yesterday's Fund Spy
"The results for the three award groups were, in order: meh, good and wow," Rekenthaler wrote, referring to domestic stock, fixed income and international stock award winners, respectively.
Rekenthaler studied the performance of Manager of the Year winners in the 10 years after they bagged the award. He compared fund's Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return (MRAR) against the average
MRAR of the category where the fund belongs.
In the domestic-stock category, only three out of the 19 managers flopped, but they "really flopped," Rekenthaler wrote.
"Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value (LMVTX) became the industry's biggest disappointment in the mid- and late-Oughts; as previously mentioned,
Jim Callinan was victimized by the tech-stock collapse; and Longleaf Partners (LLPFX) got whacked in two of its next five years," he noted.
Meanwhile, Rekenthaler described the fixed income award winners as good. Their funds' MRARs, as a group, are 50 bps better than the category MRARs.
More impressive were the international stock awardees. "The Morningstar team selecting the International-Stock winners should open a hotline on NFL games," according to Rekenthaler. "Of the 13 Fund Manager of the Year selections for International Stocks, 12 ran funds that had
strong future results of 4 or 5."
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